BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 12. For this year, global oil production is anticipated to increase by 1.5 mb/d, reaching a new high of 101.5 mb/d, Trend reports.
As evident from the data received from the International Energy Agency (IEA), notably, the US, Brazil, China, and Guyana will be the key contributors to non-OPEC+ growth, adding a combined 1.9 mb/d. As a result, producers outside the OPEC+ coalition will contribute 49 percent of the total global supply in 2023.
Looking ahead to the following year, non-OPEC+ countries are poised to maintain their dominance in global supply growth, with an additional 1.3 mb/d, pushing their share of total oil output to 49.6 percent. Meanwhile, OPEC+ production might see a slight increase of 160 kb/d.
Examining the three major producers, the US is driving the expansion in the non-OPEC+ sector and, when comparing cumulative figures to 1Q21, it is on track to increase its output by 3.4 mb/d in 3Q23. The average production for 2023 is projected to exceed 19 mb/d, marking a new annual record high, with further growth anticipated in the following year.
Shifting focus to Saudi Arabia, although its cumulative growth had kept up with the US until the third quarter of the previous year, by 3Q23, its supply will only surpass 1Q21 levels by 590 kb/d due to reduced output from Riyadh. As for Russia, its output in 3Q23 is expected to be 120 kb/d higher than that of the first quarter of 2021.