BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 24. Russia's electricity demand growth is forecasted to slow to an average rate of 0.7 percent from 2024 to 2026, Trend reports.
According to the outlook provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA), significant uncertainty surrounds Russia's economic development and structure, potentially influencing electricity demand trends.
Despite the subdued industrial, manufacturing, and commercial activity compared to the period before the war in Ukraine, Russia's electricity demand is thought to have increased by approximately 1 percent in 2023, similar to its growth rate in 2022, the agency said.
Over the first eleven months of 2023, the country's overall electricity generation saw a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percent, as per the IEA data. Fossil-fired thermal generation, constituting 63 percent of the total power supply during this period, rose by 2 percent, primarily due to a 3.5-percent decrease in nuclear output. At the same time, hydropower generation increased by 0.7 percent year-on-year, while solar and wind power generation experienced robust growth, each rising by around 10 percent.
Meanwhile, according to the IEA, Russia's electricity exports to China dipped by more than 25 percent year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2023, impacted by lower electricity generation in Russia's Far East. Extreme heatwaves and reduced hydro availability in the region hindered its ability to export electricity to China.
Looking ahead to the period from 2024 through 2026, the share of fossil-based thermal generation in the country's power mix is expected to marginally decline, hovering just above 60 percent on average in the medium term. Despite slow progress, there is ongoing development in wind and solar capacity, the agency noted. The commissioning of Unit 1 at the Kursk II nuclear plant is also anticipated in 2025.