BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 15. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that oil supply growth will be led by non-OPEC+ producers, mainly the US, from the second quarter of this year through 2025, Trend reports.
According to the agency, in March, non-OPEC+ supply rose by 330,000 b/d month-on-month, primarily due to the ongoing recovery in US production, while OPEC+ added 90,000 b/d. Overall, global oil supply increased by 410,000 b/d in March to 102.3 mb/d, up by 320,000 b/d year-on-year.
For the entire year, world oil supply is expected to grow by 770,000 b/d to reach 102.9 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ production is projected to increase by 1.6 mb/d, while OPEC+ output is forecasted to decline by 820,000 b/d, assuming existing voluntary production cuts remain in place.
In 2025, global oil supply growth could accelerate to 1.6 mb/d, reaching a new record of 104.5 mb/d, the IEA expects. Non-OPEC+ producers are expected to lead gains for the third consecutive year, rising by 1.4 mb/d.
In the context of non-OPEC+ expansion, additional barrels pumped from the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada would nearly meet the world's oil demand growth for this year and the next. These non-OPEC+ American producers are expected to set new records, adding a combined 1.2 mb/d in 2024 and another 1 mb/d in 2025.
Although production momentum in the US is expected to slow, it will remain the largest source of supply growth worldwide through 2025, adding 650,000 b/d this year and 540,000 b/d in 2025.