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Forecasts of public budget expected to be corrected in mid 2009

Business Materials 3 February 2009 22:00 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 3/ trend Capital U. Ismaylova/

Azerbaijan's Parliament intends to re-consider the forecasts of the 2009 Public budget because of oil price reduction in the world markets, Vahid Ahmedov, chairman of constant parliamentary commission on economic policy, said on Feb. 3.

"The Parliament plans to re-consider thebudget forecasts because of sharp oil price reduction. Presently, it costs over $40 per barrel in the world market," Ahmedov said.

Presently, the price for Azerbaijani oil totals $46 per barel.

The oil price in the 2009 Public budget can be fixed in the amount of $50 per barrel. But upon the approved budget it makes up $70, Ahmedov said.

"Such a level is the most optimal. According to the forecasts of various international organizations, the oil price won't exceed $50 per barrel in 2009, the MP said.

The record oil price in the world market was observed in the amount of $147 per barrel in summer 2008. So, the government by the most pessimistic variant preserved forecast of 2007 - $70 per barrel.

Since the beginning of 2008 prices for "black gold" lost about 60 percent and 73 percent since they reached over $147 per barrel in July amid slump of demand in leading consumer countries, such as the United States of America, China, Japan, etc.

Since the beginning of 2008 the special weight of the Azerbaijani oil incomes significantly increased due to available situation of oil prices in the world markets. It led to growth of incomes to Azerbaijan's Public budget and was reflected in corrected budget forecasts. According to these forecasts, oil sector was to provide incomes to the Public budget in the amount of 6.7 billion manat in 2008 which makes up 63.9 percent of total budget incomes (given transfer in the amount of 3.8 billion manat from the State Oil Fund). But these calculations were made without taking into account Georgian events and explosion on Turkish part of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline which reduced oil export, as well as world prices for oil. Despite this, profitable part of public budget was fulfilled surpassing forecasts.

However, the oil price reduction continues, as well as the production volumes reduced in 2009. However, 62.4 percent of total incomes to the Public budget must be provided due to the oil sector.

Incomes of the 2009 Public budget are forecast in amount of 12,177 billion manat but expenditures - 12,355 billion manat.

On Feb. 3, the official exchange rate is 0.8071 manat to $1.

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