Analysts keep faith in global economy

Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept. 28 / Trend A.Badalova /

The world economy continues to show weak rehabilitation, beyond all expectations. Nevertheless, the forecasts for the further stabilization of economy remain quite optimistic. According to the head of the Dominique Strauss-Kahn Fund, the world economy may not be restored in the first half of 2010 as previously expected, but one quarter earlier.

In accordance with new IMF forecasts, in 2009, the global economy will show a fall by 1.3 percent compared to 1.4 percent forecasted earlier. In 2010, the IMF expects world economic growth at 2.9 percent compared to 2.5 percent predicted earlier. According to IMF forecasts, GDP in the U.S will decrease by 2.9 percent in 2009 and increase by 1.2 percent in 2010.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is also among the optimists, which has raised its forecasts on GDP decline in the Great 7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and USA) in 2009. According to the OECD forecasts, the economy in these countries will not decline by 4.1 percent, as expected, but by 3.7 percent. Under the results of the third and fourth quarters, GDP growth in these countries will be 1.2 and 1.4 percent respectively, the organization forecasted. The U.S. economy will rise by 1.6 percent at the third quarter, the Euro zone economy - 0.3 percent and Japan - 1.1 percent.

Analysts of the German Deutsche bank forecasted moderate growth in the global economy in 2010. Under the forecasts, in 2010 GDP growth in developing countries will amount to 4.5 percent.

One of Britain's leading consulting firms for economic research Capital EconoWics expects fall by 2.5 percent in the Euro zone economy in 2009. In the fourth quarter of 2009, the region's economy will grow by 3.5 percent compared to 3 percent growth in the third quarter and in 2010 - 3 percent. However, in 2011, the growth rate of the region's economy will fall again to 1.5 percent, the analysts said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also raised its forecasts on world economic growth for 2009 and 2010. According to new forecasts, global GDP will decrease by 1.2 percent in 2009 and in 2010 will grow by 2.5 percent. The OECD countries' economy will decrease by 3.6 percent in 2009 and will grow by 0.9 percent in 2010, the cartel forecasted.

Analysts of one of the largest banks in the world - the American JP Worgan - expected decline by 1.4 percent in world GDP in 2009 and an increase by 2.4 percent in 2010. The U.S. economy will decline by 2.8 percent in 2009 and by 1.2 percent in 2010.

The level of economic growth for 2009-2010:

COMPANY

2009(%)

2010  (%)

2011  (%)

IMF

- 1.3 (W)

2.9 (W)

-

Capital EconoWics

- 2.5 (Е)

3 ( Q 3)

3.5 (Q 4)

3 (Е)

1,5 (Е)

OPEC

- 1.2 (W)

- 3.6 (О)

2.5 (W)

0.9 (О)

-

OECD

- 3.7 (G7)

1.2 (Q1 )

1.4 (Q 4 q)

1.6 (U - Q 3  )

0.3 (Е - Q 3)

2.5 (W)

-

JP Worgan

- 1.4 (W)

- 2.8 (U)

2.4 (W)

- 1.2 (U)

-

W-world GDP

O-OECD

E- Euro zone

U - U.S

G7- Great 7 countries

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