Iranian budget and statistics for 2011

Iranian budget and statistics for 2011

Trend Persian Desk Head, Dalga Khatinoglu

Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad presented "last minute" next year's budget project to Parliament.(the New Year starts on March 21due to Iranian history ). The Parliament needs 45 days to approve the budget draft. Although there is no details given on the information, Ahmadinejad said the total volume of the budget would be 539 billion dollars. In comparison with the current year's budget (from March, 2010 to March, 2011) this figure exceeds it by 46 percent (171 billion dollars)

The total volume of the 2010 budget was 368 billion dollars.

Ahmadinejad's budget plan submitted to Parliament two months later than expected indicates different factors that may cause its increase. With the cancellation of subsidies in December 2010 the Iranian authorities reduce state expenditures by 57 bln dollars per year.
Although the US currency's exchange rate in 2010 was 950 tumens (Iranian currency), it is 1050 tumens in 2011 budget, as well as oil price in 2010 budget was 65 dollars per barrel , it is 80 dollars per barrel in 2011.

Taking all this into account, it is unclear how the budget increases by 46 per cent , and 171 billion dollars income increase based on sources of income listed above is not possible.

In 2010 Iran sold oil in the amount of 64 bln dollars, the income generated from gas condensate, petrochemistry and non-oil exports for the last 10 months totalled 21.5 billion dollars.

The government may raise taxes in 2011 and increase the volume of privatization, but so far no information on such plans has been reported.

2010 stats unclear moments

The Central Bank of Iran did not announce country's indicator of economic development, the National Reserve Fund's figures, unemployment, inflation rates and GDP in 2010.

In his last week's speech in the city of Bushehr Ahmadinejad said that 1.6 million new jobs had been created from March 21, 2010 so far and unemployment rate is 9-10 per cent.

According to the Iranian 20-Year Development Plan, 8 percent annual economic growth must be reached through 25 bln dollars foreign investments per year.

Since March 2010, according to official statistics, 2.7 bln dollars of foreign funds have
been invested and the International Bank reported that Iranian economic development was 1.5 percent in 2010.

Taking this into account, the fact that the number of newly created jobs compared with previous years is 3 times more is unclear. Given unemployment rate in the 2010 summer at 14,6 per cent on the one hand and the 1.5 percent economic growth on the other, it is still unknown how unemployment rate reduced five times.

As to the collection of 20 percent oil revenues to the National Reserve Fund, Vice-President Mohammad Reza Rahimi said the Fund's resources currently constitutes 22 bln dollars.
At the same time the Minister of Economic Development Shamsaddin Hosseini said that no more than 12 bln dollars.

According to the Supreme Audit Court this last year saw no pouring of 12 bln dollars in the National Reserve Fund.

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