Kazakhstan's GDP growth forecast at 3.7% in 2020

Kazakhstan's GDP growth forecast at 3.7% in 2020

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec.18

By Nargiz Sadikhova - Trend:

Kazakhstan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected at 4 percent for 2019, before easing to 3.7 percent in 2020, Trend reports with reference to the World Bank’s (WB) Kazakhstan Economic Update.

According to WB, solid performance in domestic demand supported annual GDP growth in 2019.

“Higher spending on social assistance and continued infrastructure investments helped sustain consumption and investments. Business investment has largely been driven by capital spending in the mining industry and buoyancy in residential construction,” the report said.

Robust domestic demand, rising food prices, and a weaker exchange rate contributed to inflation fluctuations. The annual inflation rate rose to 5.5 percent in October 2019, slightly above the rate recorded the previous year, resulting in a tightening of monetary policy by the Central bank, WB reports.

Growth will moderate in 2020, according to the report, as the impact of previous fiscal stimuli diminish gradually over time, and a weaker external environment increases vulnerability to economic shocks. Although global economic growth is expected to improve slightly in 2020, weaker-than-expected growth in the European Union (EU), Chinese, and Russian economies could rattle demand and the prices of commodities relevant to Kazakhstan’s exports. Continued weak demand for corporate lending and risk-aversion by banks present another downside risk to growth.

“Although Kazakhstan’s GDP has grown at a steady pace in the last two years, going forward it will be necessary to rethink subsidy policies and lending to small and medium enterprises and industries to improve markets and sustain growth”, said Jean-Francois Marteau, World Bank Country Manager for Kazakhstan.

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Follow the author on twitter: @nargiz_sadikh

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