Azerbaijan, Baku, May 25 / Trend , I.Khalilova/
On the backdrop of global processes and variability of conditions in world oil prices, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Economic Development has cut the forecast prices, on which base the macroeconomic indicators for 2010 are formed.
"The Ministry of Economic Development has provided the primary projections of $40 per barrel of oil, but they will be adjusted depending on the situation," Deputy Minister of Finance Azar Bayramov said.
He said the Ministry of Finance is still in the process of forming the budget forecasts, and more refined data will appear on July 1.
Budget projections for 2009 were formed at the price of oil at $70 per barrel, but since last year, the price of oil on world markets began to decline, and today it is still below $60.
In March, Finance Minister Samir Sharifov said that "the fall in oil prices on world markets reduces our revenues not so much, as the decline in production from AIOC.
According to initial forecasts, the volume of oil production from AIOC was at about 35 million tons.
Bayramov said the increase in revenues is expected from AIOC due to oil price rise on world markets
"Since early 2009, income is not yet at such a high level, they are lagging behind the schedule of payments. But this is mainly due to the fact that the level of production from them is lower than the predicted," Deputy Minister said.
He said oil production from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli fields will be one million barrels a day, but the actual volumes is less.
While developing macroeconomic forecasts for 2010, taking into account the oil price at $40 per barrel, the Ministry has tried to protect themselves, because countries usually need time to rise and increase capacity growth during the post-crisis period.
In 2008, forecasts of macroeconomic indicators for 2009 were prepared on the basis of three scenarios [pessimistic, average and optimistic] changes in oil prices on world markets.
According to pessimistic forecasts, the oil price l for 2009 was set at $80 per one barrel, medium - $100, while the maximum - $125. Until 2012, this figure was expected to be reduced up to $70. But the deepening world crisis has the impact on oil prices, which led to the need to revert to a more conservative approach.
In 2005, when the projections were set oil price at $25, in 2006 - $50 (after adjusting forecasts, as was originally at $40), 2007 - $50, 2008 - $70 (although originally was taken as the basis of $50).
The IMF (for the budget of Azerbaijan for 2009) pointed to the stability of the country's budget, even while lowering the oil price to $40 per barrel. Meanwhile, the recession of the U.S. economy which uses at least50 percent of the Azeri oil (Azeri Light FOB Ceyhan), does not bode well in terms of ensuring the sustainability of the Azerbaijani budget, as well as oil consumption in the United States may be at a low level in 2009/2010.
Azeri Light crude oil is sold to Brent with premium, and is already at around $60.9.
Revenues of the budget-2009 are projected at 12.177 billion manat (27.9 percent), expenses -12.355 billion manat (28.3 percent of GDP), deficit - 178 million manat, or 0.4 percent of GDP.
On May 25, the official exchange rate is 0.8036 manat to $1.
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