Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept.5. / Trend A.Badalova /
Just like the broader global economy, demand for oil is showing signs of life after experiencing sharp declines for about a year, Energy Intelligence Group said.
Global oil balances tightened further in August, according to preliminary data from International Oil Daily sister publication Oil Market Intelligence, with demand outpacing supply by 490,000 barrels per day versus around 320,000 b/d in the previous two months.
As a result, global oil demand averaged a respectable 84.64 million b/d in August, up 140,000 b/d, or 0.17%, versus the same month of 2008.
This is the first time demand has shown year-on-year growth since July of last year. Non-OECD demand pushed ahead with a solid rise of 955,000 b/d, or 2.5%, while OECD demand fell by "only" 815,000 b/d, still much better than the 2.2 million b/d decline seen in July. The oil demand in China in August rose by 475,000 b/d.
Despite the significant signs of stabilization in world oil demand, forecasts for 2009 remain quite stringent. According to the forecasts of the International Energy Agency, in 2009, world oil demand will be 83.94 million b/d, which is 2.7 percent less than 2008, which is, nevertheless, slightly higher than the forecast made by the Agency in July. The changes in the forecast were made mainly due to rising in demand in Asian countries.
According to the forecasts of EIA, world oil demand will decrease by 1.7 million b/d to 83.76 million b/d in 2009. In the fourth quarter of 2009, the EIA predicts growth in demand for the first time in last five quarters.
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