US bank raises forecasts for world oil prices
Azerbaijan, Baku, May 22 /Trend A.Badalova/
One of the largest U.S. bank JP Morgan raised forecasts for U.S. WTI crude price in 2010 from $83.5 per barrel to $88 per barrel.
"The Greek crisis has increased the risks of drop in major economies and has led to a rapid strengthening of the USD over the past few weeks, which in turn led to a sharp drop in oil prices," JP Morgan monthly report on oil market said. - But we believe that the basic supply and demand in the oil market suggest a rapid recovery in prices over the next three months."
According to analysts of JP Morgan, in the second quarter, the average price for WTI will be $86 per barrel, in the third quarter - $94 per barrel, in the fourth - $93 per barrel.
The analysts forecast an average price of WTI at $90 per barrel in 2011. The highest price for this oil next year will occur in the fourth quarter - at $95 per barrel.
Analysts also raised forecasts for the price of North Sea crude Bent, as in 2010, and in 2011. The average price of Brent will be 88.6 and 92 dollars per barrel this year and next, respectively against the earlier projected 83.5 and 90 dollars per barrel.
As a result of trades on May 21, the cost of the June futures for WTI on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $0.76 to $70.04 per barrel. The London Stock Exchange price for the June Brent futures rose by $0.27 to $72.11 per barrel.
World oil price
According to JP Morgan analysts, world oil demand will be 86.4 million bpd in 2010 and $88.3 bpd in 2011.
Of the total oil demand in 2010, the share of OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) will have 45.5 million barrels a day to countries outside the organization - 40.9 million barrels per day.
Of the total oil demand in 2010, the share of OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) will make up 45.5 million bpd, non-OECD countries - 40.9 million bpd.
In 2011, oil demand in the OECD will increase by 0.3 million bpd to 45.8 million bpd, in non-OECD countries - by 1.6 million bpd to 42.5 million bpd.
Oil demand in Asian countries will be 26.9 million bpd in 2010 and 27.7 million bpd in 2011. Most of the demand will come from China - 8.9 million bpd this year and 9.4 million bpd next year.
Oil supplies by OPEC
JP Morgan analysts forecast an increase of global oil supply by 1.8 million bpd to 86.6 million bpd in 2010 and 1.5 million bpd to 88.1 million bpd in 2011.
Of the total world oil supply in 2010, the share of OPEC will be 29.2 million barrels bpd, which is 0.6 million bpd more than the volume in 2009. According to the forecasts of the bank, the highest level of oil cartel this year will occur in the fourth quarter - 29.5 million bpd.
In 2011, the bank predicts an increase in OPEC supply by 1.8 million barrels to 31 million bpd. In the first and second quarters of next year, the level of supply will be 30.5 million bpd, in the third and fourth quarter - 31.5 million bpd.
Crude oil production by non-OPEC countries rose in April by 79,000 barrels to 29.11 million bpd, the JP Morgan report said.
Oil supply by non-OPEC countries
The bank's analysts have raised forecast of oil supplies by non-OPEC countries this year from 49.7 million to 49.9 million bpd, which is 0.7 million bpd higher than the volume of deliveries last year. In 2011, bank analysts predict a reduction in oil supply by these countries by 0.8 million bpd to 49.1 million bpd.
According to JP Morgan, oil production by non-OPEC countries declined in April by 303,000 bpd, of which 99,000 bpd accounted for Norway. Oil production in the former Soviet Union last month amounted to 12.5 million bpd.