JP Morgan expects growth in world oil demand at 1.7 million bpd

Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 1 / Trend A.Badalova /

World oil demand will increase in 2011 by 1.7 million bpd to 89.4 million bpd, the largest U.S. bank JP Morgan monthly report reads. Last month, the bank forecasted growth in world oil demand at 1.5 million bpd in 2011.

The highest level in world oil demand this year, the bank's analysts expect in the fourth quarter - 90.2 million barrels per day.

Of the total oil demand in 2011, 46.2 million barrels per day will fell to OECD countries and 44.7 million barrels a day non-OECD counties.

In 2012, JP Morgan predicts an increase in world oil demand at 1.5 million bpd to 90.9 million barrels per day compared to 90.6 million barrels per day the bank predicted last month.

Oil demand in OECD countries in 2012, will not change, remaining at 46.2 million barrels per day. In countries outside the organization, oil demand next year will amount to 44.7 million barrels per day.

Oil demand in Asia will amount to 28.2 million bpd in 2011 and 29 million bpd in 2012. The largest part of demand among the Asian countries will account for China - 9.9 million barrels per day this year and 10.4 million barrels per day in 2012.

JP Morgan expects global oil demand in 2010 to total 87.7 million barrels per day.


Oil supplies by OPEC

JP Morgan analysts forecast an increase in world oil supplies by 2.1 million bpd to 89.2 million bpd in 2011 and 1.5 million up to 90.7 million bpd in 2012.

Of the total world oil supply in 2011, 29.6 million barrels per day  will fell to OPEC, which at 0.5 million barrels per day more than the volume in 2010. In 2012, OPEC oil supply will increase by 0.7 million barrels to 30.3 million barrels per day.

In December last year, according to JP Morgan, OPEC oil supplies rose by 260,000 bpd to 29.3 million barrels per day.

Oil supplies by non-OPEC countries

Oil supplies by non-OPEC counties will rise in 2011 by 0.9 million barrels to 51.4 million barrels per day. In 2012, the bank predicts an increase in supply of these countries at 0.3 million to 51.7 million barrels per day.

Oil production by non-OPEC counties fell in December last year by 226,000 bpd to 41.1 million barrels per day. Reduction was observed mainly due to a seasonal decline in oil production in China. Oil production in the former Soviet Union in October fell by 0.042 million barrels per day to 12.623 million barrels a day.


Oil Prices

JP Morgan expects the average price of U.S. WTI grade crude oil at $93 per barrel in 2011 and $104 per barrel - in 2012.

The price of WTI will rise to $104 per barrel in the first quarter of 2011, then drop to $99 per barrel in the second quarter and once again rise to $104 in the third and $ 109 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

The price for North Sea Brent forecasted at $95 per barrel in 2011 and $105 per barrel in 2012

The highest price of Brent in 2012 will occur in the fourth quarter - $ 110 per barrel. In the first and third quarters will be $ 105 per barrel and in the second - $ 100 per barrel.

Following the auction on Friday, Dec.28, the March futures price for WTI on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $3.7 to $89.34 per barrel. On the London Stock Exchange March futures price for Brent rose by $2.03 to $99.42 per barrel.

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