Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 7 / Trend /
Trend Agency expert Seymur Aliyev
EU countries have reached consensus on imposing oil embargo against Iran, EU High Commissioner for Energy Günther Oettinger said.
EU Commissioner's statement, along with other circumstances, has already had its effect on oil prices. As a result of trading on the New York Stock Exchange, the prices increased by $ 1 to $110.81 per barrel.
The direct use of sanctions can further increase the oil prices. This will increase fuel price, primarily in the EU countries, which are in a difficult financial and economic situation. This is explained by the fact that about 13 percent of the total volume of oil imported by Italy fall to Iranian oil (183,000 bpd), Spain - 13 percent (137,000 barrels per day), Greece - 14 percent (20,000 barrels). Iran delivered 450,000 barrels of oil to Europe per day as of January - June this year.
About 18 percent of all oil volumes imported by Iran fall to Europe.
The refusal from importing Iranian oil will require its replacement by other manufacturers' products. Such a situation in terms of limiting oil production in Libya, as well as the sanctions against Syria, will lead to a significant deficit of products on the market of the Mediterranean Sea, and as a consequence, a significant increase in oil prices not only on this market, but worldwide.
The increase in fuel cost on the EU markets, in particular in such countries as Greece, Italy and Spain, will be another powerful blow to the EU economy, which is already experiencing severe shoke.
However, an embargo imposed on Iranian oil and, consequently, the increase in the fuel cost on the world markets will hit South East Asia, South Africa and Turkey.
These countries are major buyers of Iranian oil. In particular, about 51 percent fall to Iran in the total volume of oil imported by Turkey. This figure hits 100 percent in Sri Lanka.
Iran imports more than 1.8 million barrels of oil per day to these countries, or 73 percent of total fuel imported from the country. As of the first six months, the largest amount of supplies falls to China - 543,000 barrels per day, Japan - 341,000 barrels, and India - 328,000 barrels.
However, oil-producing countries will benefit from the embargo against Iran and increased oil price. In particular, Russia is one of the largest oil producers. It has already expressed its position on this issue. Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said that Moscow takes the most neutral position in the issue of embargo against Iran.
The restrictions imposed on Iranian oil supplies will increase interest in Caspian energy resources. At present, Azerbaijani and Kazakh oil is mainly transported to the Mediterranean sea and Black Sea. The increased oil price on the market in this basin will significantly increase the profit from its sale and, accordingly, the revenues of these countries and the companies working there. One can also expect a significant increase in demand for gas as an alternative fuel.
Taking into account all the consequences that may result in an embargo on Iranian oil, one can assume that this decision will be made under high pressure or will not be made at all.
Oettinger's statement that the contract for an embargo on Iranian oil must unite not only the EU countries but also other major oil importers, such as the U.S. and Russia is significant.
It is noticeable that Europe is looking for support from other countries, because the sanctions imposed unilaterally, will first cause damage to the EU. Taking into account that the U.S. imposed sanctions against Tehran in 1979, major oil importers are in South-East Asia, and they are the main countries supporting Iran today, Brussels will fail to get support from any country.