U.S. predicts global oil demand growth at around 1.4 mln bpd in 2012

Oil&Gas Materials 8 December 2011 17:47 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec .8 / Trend A. Badalova /

Global oil demand will increase by 1.39 million barrels per day to 89.52 million barrels per day in 2012, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts in its short-term energy outlook.

The EIA monthly report said China and other emerging economies account for most of the projected crude oil and liquid fuels consumption growth through 2012.

According to the EIA forecasts, OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) consumption is projected to remain relatively flat in 2012 - at the level of 45.65 million barrels per day.

The consumption in non-OECD countries will increase by 1.48 mln bpd to 42.45 mln bpd in 2011.

EIA predicts world oil demand as of 2011 will increase by 1.06 million bpd to 88.13 million barrels per day. OECD consumption is projected to decline by 0.42 million bbl/d to 45.68 mln bpd in 2011. Non-OECD countries' demand for oil will amount 42.45 mln bpd this year.

Non-OPEC members' production

The EIA predicts an increased oil supply by non-OPEC members by 400,000 million bpd to 51.76 million barrels per day in 2011 and by 1.16 mln barrels to 53.32 million barrels per day in 2012.

EIA believes the largest source of expected growth in non-OPEC liquids production over the forecasted period is the United States, where production is projected to grow by 340,000 bbl/d in 2011 and 240,000 bbl/d in 2012.

Canada, China, Colombia, and Kazakhstan are each expected to increase production at an average annual rate of 100 thousand bbl/d or more.

In contrast, EIA projects that Russian and Mexican annual average production will decrease by 170,000 bbl/d and 60,000 thousand bbl/d, respectively, between 2011 and 2012.

According to the EIA, oil production in Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries will be 13.39 million bpd in 2011 and 13.52 million bpd in 2012.

OPEC production

EIA expects OPEC crude oil production to remain largely unchanged in both 2011 and 2012 after having grown by 0.7 mln bbl/d in 2010.

EIA expects OPEC crude oil production to decline by 70,000 bbl/d to 29.7 million bpd in 2011 and increase by 11,000 bbl/d to 29.81 mln bpd in 2012.

Given recent developments in Libya's oil sector, EIA now expects Libyan crude oil production to rise to an average of 900 thousand bbl/d during the first quarter of 2012 and to 1.2 million bbl/d by the fourth quarter of 2012, compared with pre-disruption output of 1.65 million bbl/d.

Oil prices

EIA revised the projected U.S. WTI price upward from last month's Outlook.

EIA expects that the WTI price will average $98 per barrel in 2012, well above the $91 per barrel forecast in the previous Outlook.

According to the EIA forecasts, in 2011 the average WTI price will amount at $94.81 per barrel.

Following the auctions on Dec. 7, January futures prices on WTI on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $0.79 to $100.49 per barrel.

The EIA is a statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Energy established by Congress in 1977.