U.S. analysts predict global oil production growth at 1.3 mln bpd in 2012
Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 12 / Trend A.Badalova /
World oil demand will grow by 1.3 million barrels per day to 90.1 million barrels per day in 2012, the analysts of the large U.S. bank JP Morgan predict.
"In 2012, we expect a rebound to 1.3 mbd, with the pickup in growth weighted towards the second half of the year," the analysts said in their monthly oil market report.
Of the total oil demand in 2012, 45.6 million bpd will fell to the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries and 44.5 million bpd - non-OECD countries.
JP Morgan analysts said in 2011 demand growth has fallen to 660 kbd versus 2.7 mbd in 2010. Analysts predict global oil demand at the level of 88.8 mln bpd in 2011.
In the fourth quarter of 2011, growth should remain tepid at around 200 kbd, as J.P. Morgan economists expect the global economy to expand by only 1.8 percent, the report said.
Analysts predict world oil demand to increase by 1.4 mln bpd to 91.5 mln bpd.
According to the forecasts, oil demand in the OECD countries will only slightly increase by 0.1 mln bpd to 45.7 million bpd. Oil demand in non-OECD countries will increase by 1.4 mln bpd to 45.9 million bpd in 2013.
Oil demand in Asia will be 29 million bpd in 2012 and 29.8 million bpd in 2013. Most of the oil demand will fell to China - 9.9 million bpd in 2012 and 10.4 million barrels per day in 2013.
Oil supplies by OPEC
JP Morgan analysts forecast an increase in OPEC oil supply by 0.5 to 30.2 million bpd in 2012 compared to 29.7 million bpd in 2011. According to analysts' expectations, OPEC will increase oil supplies by 0.9 million to 31.1 million bpd in 2013.
Analysts expect OPEC oil supply to reach 30.4 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2011.
Libyan output prospects continue to improve, with the low level of infrastructure damage leading us to forecast output to rise to 1.3 mbd by the middle of 2012, analysts believe.
Analysts now envisage an end-2011 Libyan output level of around 900 kbd. This is 150 kbd above last month's projection and almost treble the early-September estimate. Forecasts for 2012 are similarly higher, with mid-2012 production now expected to reach almost 1.3 mbd and an average production of 1.24 mbd.
Oil supply by non-OPEC countries
According to the JP Morgan's analysts, oil supply by non-OPEC countries will rise by 0.7 million barrels to 51.3 million bpd in 2012 and by 0.3 million bpd to 51.6 million bpd in 2013.
In particular, supply constraints in Asia and Africa in 4Q2011 contribute to a modest decline of 0.1 mbd in non-OPEC supply over a year ago, falling to 50.8 mbd, analysts believe.
"In particular, supply constraints in Asia and Africa in 4Q2011 contribute to a modest decline of 0.1 mbd in non-OPEC supply over a year ago, falling to 50.8 mbd," the analysts report said.
According to the analysts' forecasts, oil production in the former Soviet Union (FSU) countries will amount to 13.7 mln bpd in 2012 and to 13.8 mln bpd in 2013.
Middle East countries' production will decrease to 1.6 mln bpd in 2012 and 2013 compared to 1.7 mln bpd in 2011.