Start of non-OPEC supply cuts could improve oil market conditions
Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan. 19
By Aygun Badalova - Trend:
The start of non-OPEC supply cuts could improve oil market conditions and lift prices over the course of 2H2015, analysts of the US JP Morgan bank believes.
"The possibility of key non-OPEC oil exporting nations resolving the market surplus together with OPEC stands at a slightly higher probability," analysts said in a report obtained by Trend.
The largest response within non-OPEC supply in the near-term, according to the analysts, is centered around the US shale producers.
They expect rapid decline rates - up to five times greater than conventional mature oil fields - to weigh on growth sooner than elsewhere.
Analysts forecast that US shale production growth will decline rapidly over the course of 2015.
JP Morgan's analysts expect total non-OPEC oil supply to amount to 55.1 million barrels per day in 2015 compared to 54.2 million barrels per day in 2014.
In the first and second quarters of this year analysts forecast non-OPEC oil supply at 55.1 million barrels per day.
Then, in the third quarter of the year, according to their forecasts, non-OPEC oil supply to decline to 54.9 million barrels per day with rising again to 55.3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
In 2016 analysts forecast non-OPEC oil supply at 55.2 million barrels per day with the highest level at 55.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
In the first quarter of 2016 supply volume is expected at 55.3 million barrels per day, in the second and third quarters - at 55.1 million barrels per day.