Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan. 26
By Aygun Badalova - Trend:
The United States and Australia will lead the expansion in both gas and LNG supply over the next few years, said the report of the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center and Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center.
The report titled "Surging Liquefied Natural Gas Trade" stressed that the fall in global natural gas demand and prices since early 2014 is likely to slow gas production for at least the next five years.
The report, obtained by Trend, with the reference to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecasts said that gas production growth will increase at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent during 2014-20, down from an average rate of 2.4 percent during the previous ten years.
"However, the IEA anticipates that gas production growth is likely to pick up rate beyond 2020 as demand picks up and gas prices strengthen," the report said.
While global production may slow down, the US gas production, including shale gas production, will continue to grow, buoyed by lower production costs as drilling and recovery techniques become more efficient, increased operator focus on the most productive resources, and reduced prices and profit share for suppliers of equipment and services, according to the report.
According to IEA analysis, the US and Australia will account for the largest portion of the 410 billion cubic meters increase in annual world gas production from 2014 to 2020, with US output growing by 114 billion cubic meters and Australia output growing by 80 billion cubic meters.
Production gains for other potential gas exporters will be modest through 2020, with the possible exception of an additional 51 billion cubic meters in the Caspian region, the report said referring to the IEA forecast.
"Most of this boost will come from planned increases in gas sent by Turkmenistan through pipelines to China and the beginning of gas shipments by Azerbaijan through the Southern Corridor pipelines to Europe," it said.
According to the IEA forecasts LNG exports will increase by about 164 billion cubic meters through 2020 and the US and Australia will account for 90 percent of the increase.