Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec.21
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
By 2035, 1.8 million barrels per day of global oil demand will be displaced by electric vehicles (EVs), according to Wood Mackenzie analysis.
“Numerous factors are set to stagnate transport fuel demand in the next decade or so, and EVs are only a small part of the story in the immediate future: we expect 2.4 million to be sold by 2020,” said the company.
Post-2025, Wood Mackenzie expects EVs to start making a palpable dent in the transport sector globally, with Europe leading adoption.
“We expect global sales to more than triple from 4 percent in 2025 to 12.5 percent in 2035, with varying regional deviations. Europe should expect 30 percent of its car sales to be electric in less than two decades, with the US trailing at 20 percent and China's entry-level market at 15 percent,” said the analysis.
By this time, EVs will displace approximately 6 percent of global gasoline demand, Wood Mackenzie believes.
As for how EVs will impact fuel demand, Linda Giesecke, Research Director, Americas Refining and Oil Product Markets said that one of the main factors to consider is falling battery costs.
“So, what we have seen up to now is basically a trade-off between range and affordability when it comes to EVs, which means that EVs with a long driving range were very expensive and they were more or less limited to the luxury car market. But what we’re seeing now, is the release of this new generation EV models that have an increased range at a purchase price that is more affordable,” she added.
Another factor is that US carmakers are facing very strong regulations when it comes to fuel efficiency of these cars, according to Giesecke.
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