Which fuel is biggest loser in 2040 global energy mix?
Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan. 3
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
World energy demand is projected to grow by 1.1 percent per annum, rising 29 percent between 2017 and 2040, from 13.8 to 17.8 gigatonne of oil equivalent (Gtoe), according to Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
"By 2040, fossil fuels are expected to meet 75 percent of the world’s energy demand. The share of natural gas in the global energy mix will increase from 22 percent in 2016 to 26 percent in 2040", said the Global Gas Outlook released by GECF.
GECF analysts believe that coal is the biggest loser in the global energy mix in 2040, being increasingly replaced by natural gas, renewables and nuclear power.
"Coal will see a 7 percent decrease (from 27 percent to 20 percent) to be gradually replaced by natural gas, renewables (17 percent) and nuclear (6 percent). Concurrently, the share of oil in the global energy mix will decrease by 3 percent to 29 percent in 2040", said the report.
Over the outlook period, the GECF expects the power generation, transport and domestic sectors to consume more than 70 percent of global energy, with demand shares of 40 percent, 19 percent and 14 percent, respectively.
"An increasing global population, the need to generate more electricity and increasing demand for hybrid vehicles are some of the determinants that influence energy demand growth in the power generation, transport and domestic sectors", said the report.
On average in comparison to the historical period, growth in energy demand over the outlook period will decelerate for all sectors, GECF analysts believe.
However, power generation will maintain its position as the largest consumer over the outlook period, said the report.
The transport sector is the second largest energy consumer worldwide, according to GECF.