Baku, Azerbaijan, Sept.21
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Global oil consumption growth is likely to moderate, according to the report of the US JP Morgan Bank.
“We revised our overall global oil products demand for 2018 to 99 million barrels per day (previous estimate: 99.2 million barrels per day) and that for 2019 to 100.1 million barrels per day (as compared to 100.3 million barrels per day). The absolute numbers were revised down due to revisions to our 2017 data,” said the report.
The growth in oil demand was revised up by 25,000 barrels per day for 2018 to 1.63 million barrels per day and lower by 27,000 barrels per day for 2019 to 1.07 million barrels per day.
“The 2018 upward revision was due to upward growth revision to 1Q18 OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) demand driven mainly by the United States and some of the other Asian economies (excluding India and China). In contrast, we revised down 3Q18 and 4Q18 growth by around 200,000 barrels per day each, which is in-line with downward revisions in GDP growth forecast for economies across Emerging Markets. The 2019 downward growth revisions are driven by Latin America and China in the first three quarters,” said the report.
Better than expected economic performance in North America is expected to provide support to demand for the remainder of 2018 and 2019, according to the estimates of JP Morgan Bank.
In terms of products demand, growth in demand for gasoline remains strong and the growth in middle distillates consumption is still expected to outpace gasoline demand growth in 2018, and then it reverts back to gasoline demand growth leading the oil products pack in 2019, said the report.
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