Oil market to be in small surplus next year: Capital Economics

Oil&Gas Materials 12 November 2018 12:54 (UTC +04:00)

Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov.12

By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:

Oil market to be in small surplus next year, UK-based Capital Economics consulting company said in its report obtained by Trend.

“The price of oil (Brent) has dropped by around a fifth from its October peak and we expect it to continue to fall to $60 per barrel by end-2019. Supporting this view is our forecast that the oil market will be in a small surplus next year,” said the report.

Capital Economics said that the price of Brent dipped below $70 per barrel last Friday, after sharp falls earlier in the week.

“The catalyst for the initial drop in prices was the US decision to grant waivers to sanctions for eight of Iran’s top oil importers. This will enable Iran to continue to export, albeit at a lower level. Indeed, we had always expected a small surplus in the oil market in 2019 and for the price of Brent to end that year at $60,” said the company.

The company forecasts that the prices for Brent and WTI will stand at $70 per barrel and $62 per barrel in the last quarter of this year.

The predictions of Capital Economics show that the prices will drop to $67 per barrel for Brent in the first quarter of 2019, while WTI prices will be $8 per barrel lower than Brent prices.

For the rest of 2019, the prices for Brent will be as follows: $65 per barrel in Q2, $63 per barrel in Q3 and $60 per barrel in Q4.

This is while WTI prices will stand at $57 per barrel in Q2 and $55 per barrel both in Q3 and Q4 of 2019.

As for the first quarter of 2020, the prices for Brent and WTI are forecasted at $59 per barrel and $54 per barrel respectively.


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