GECF: Global gas demand to rise by 46% by 2040
Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec.10
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Global demand for natural gas is expected to increase by 46 percent from 2017 to 2040, the Gas Exporters Countries Forum (GECF) said in its 2018 Global Gas Outlook
Between 2000 and 2017 global demand for natural gas grew by 2.4 percent annually, from 2474 billion cubic meters (bcm) to 3709 bcm, driven by consumption in the power generation sector, according to GECF estimates.
“The GECF forecasts that global natural gas demand will rise at an annual average growth rate of 1.7 percent, representing an overall increase of 46 percent, and climbing to about 5427 bcm in 2040,” Trend reports citing GECF.
The report from the organization shows that the key changes to the projections are: Strong policy efforts to improve air quality through coal-to-gas switching in key regions; the acceleration of natural gas use in the power generation sector worldwide; policies include the phasing out of coal-fired electricity, and in some countries, nuclear-fired power generation,which will lead to greater reliance on gas-fired power plants.
Moreover, according to GECF, on the assumption that the urban population reaches about 5.7 billion by 2040, the potential for the use of gas in domestic and residential sectors is high.
Stronger demand in the industrial sector as a result of economic and population growth will lead to an increased use of gas for exports of manufactured and industrial products, said the report.
In the transport sector, LNG is expected to become an important alternative to heavy fuel oil in the marine shipping sector in the long-term, which will enable ships to meet increasingly stringent international regulations on emissions, according to the organization.
“North America is currently the largest consumer of natural gas, accounting for 26 percent of global demand. The region will continue to drive global gas consumption. This fact is primarily attributable to shale gas development in the US. Exploitation of abundant unconventional reserves has lowered prices and made natural gas an attractive alternative fuel for the power sector,” said the report.
The largest growth in gas demand among all regions globally in the outlook period comes from Africa.
“Africa currently ranks bottom in the world in terms of gas consumption, responsible for only 4 percent of global gas demand in 2017. The main demand driver will be growth in the industry and power generation sectors. By 2040, Africa will account for 5 percent of the world total consumption,” said GECF.
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