Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec.27
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Energy markets will undergo a significant transformation, as energy accessibility unlocks over a quarter of global demand, Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) told Trend.
The organization said that driven by robust population and economic growth, acceleration of industrial production, urbanization and vehicle fleet expansion in developing economies, such as India and China, global energy demand is forecasted to increase by 26 percent, rising from 14.1 Gtoe (gigatons of oil equivalent) in 2017 to 17.8 Gtoe in 2040.
Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix and will account for 76 percent by 2040, according to GECF.
“However, given global challenges and commitments, particularly UN’s Agenda for Sustainable Development and pertaining to transitions towards lower emission energy systems, a fundamental shift in energy mix will be indispensable,” said the organization.
“According to projections, oil will remain the world’s largest source of energy, although its share will decline from 32 percent currently to 29 percent. Coal’s share will fall much more considerably, from 27 percent to 21 percent, due to increasing environmental concerns, with the Asia Pacific region amounting to the bulk of demand. Simultaneously, coal becomes increasingly replaced by natural gas and renewables. Renewable energy sources, excluding hydro and biomass, will soar very rapidly, but their share is meager and could reach 6 percent of the future energy mix. Natural gas will be the only hydrocarbon resource to increase its share in the global energy mix, from 22 percent today to 26 percent in 2040, and will become the fastest growing source of energy, after renewables.”
GECF said that credentials of natural gas as being abundant, affordable, environmentally-friendly and versatile make it a key fuel in the context of the recent climate and sustainable development agenda, displacing other sources of energy in a range of sectors.
“Moreover, natural gas is the cleaner way to eliminate energy poverty and to promote modern energy access in developing countries. At the same time, despite a strong development of renewables, especially in the power sector, supported by subsidies and privileged regimes, we think that technical flexibility of gas-fired power plants provide the best partnership for intermittent solar-based and wind energy sources. It is essential for the transition to a low carbon future,” said the organization.
“Natural gas can significantly support carbon mitigation, and the gas industry is working hard to further consolidate these advantages, specifically by improving efficiency, reducing flaring, and halting methane leaks. Thus, natural gas will play a crucial role in the future energy mix, contributing significantly to economic prosperity and meeting environmental initiatives for inclusive sustainable development.”
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