Three countries to put downward pressure on non-OPEC oil supply

Oil&Gas Materials 10 April 2019 16:29 (UTC +04:00)

Baku, Azerbaijan, April 10

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2018 was revised up by 0.16 million barrels per day (mb/d) from the previous month’s report and is now estimated to have grown by 2.90 mb/d to average 62.37 mb/d, Trend reports citing OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

The adjustment was mainly due to upward revisions to all quarters of the UK (+73 tb/d), as well as upward revisions to biofuels output in Brazil (+37 tb/d) and China (+27 tb/d), said the cartel.

The expected y-o-y growth of 2.26 mb/d in the US, along with Canada, Russia, UK, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Other OECD Europe, Brazil, Ghana and China supported non-OPEC supply growth in 2018, while Mexico, Norway and Vietnam is estimated to have shown the largest declines, according to OPEC.

In contrast, non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 was revised down by 0.06 mb/d to average 2.18 mb/d, mainly due to extended maintenance in Kazakhstan (-111 tb/d), Brazil (-57 tb/d) and Canada (-23 tb/d) which was partially offset by upward revisions in the US and Russia’s oil supply forecasts.

“Total supply for the year is now projected to average 64.54 mb/d. The US (+1.87 mb/d), Brazil, Russia, UK, Australia, Ghana and the Sudans are the main drivers for this year’s growth, while Mexico, Kazakhstan, Norway, Indonesia and Vietnam are projected to see the largest declines,” reads the report.

In addition to the existing infrastructure constraints in North America – both in Texas and Alberta, the 2019 non-OPEC supply forecast faces a range of uncertainties with regard to capital investment in US shale and expansion of field activities, said OPEC.


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