Global oil demand growth to further accelerate by late 2019
BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov.15
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
In the fourth quarter of 2019 (4Q19), the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d), supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand, Trend reports citing the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19, according to IEA estimations.
The report shows that China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth.
“Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively. For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4 percent GDP growth,” said IEA.
However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute, according to the report.
“This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d,” said the IEA.
This is while in OPEC’s report in 2019, global oil demand growth was unchanged, despite some upward revisions to the Middle East in 3Q19 and 4Q19 offset by downward revision in OECD Americas, mainly to reflect weaker-than-expected demand in OECD Americas during 2Q19 and 3Q19.
“Global oil demand growth is estimated at 0.98 mb/d. In 2020, oil demand growth is forecast at 1.08 mb/d, also unchanged from the last month’s report. Other Asia and China are assumed to be the largest contributors to oil demand growth with a combined addition of 0.68 mb/d. The OECD is projected to increase by 0.07 mb/d. Non-OECD is assumed to be the largest contributor to oil demand growth, rising by 1.01 mb/d,” said OPEC.
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