BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan. 16
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Global refining intake is expected to rise in 2020 as a result of recovery in refined product demand, Trend reports with reference to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
IEA said in its Oil Market Report that for the fourth quarter of 2019 and 2019 as a whole global refinery runs are estimated to have declined by 0.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year.
“Refining margins continued falling in December due to higher crude prices, and exceptions were largely due to widening sour crude differentials. Global refining intake in 2020 is forecast to increase by 1.1 mb/d, supported by a recovery in refined product demand, estimated to grow by 0.8 mb/d,” reads the report.
In general, according to IEA estimates, global oil supply tumbled 780,000 b/d in December as biofuels production declined seasonally and Saudi Arabia reduced output.
“At 100.7 mb/d, the global total was down 1.3 mb/d on a year ago, with OPEC supply 2.4 mb/d lower. With non-OPEC oil supply growth accelerating from 2 mb/d in 2019 to 2.1 mb/d this year, the call on OPEC crude falls to 28.5 mb/d during the first half of 2020 compared with December production of 29.44 mb/d. Steeper OPEC+ cuts take effect this month,” said the report.
IEA estimates that global oil demand rose by 955,000 b/d year-on-year to 101.1 mb/d in October and for the fourth quarter of 2019 it is estimated to have grown by 1.9 mb/d versus a low fourth quarter 2018 level.
“We see continued strong momentum in non-OECD countries with China and India demand growing 0.8 mb/d and 0.5 mb/d respectively in November. US demand is flat in 2019. Our global demand growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 remain unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d,” reads the report.
---
Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn