BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan. 16
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The largest declines among non-OPEC producers will be in Mexico, though Mexico’s production declines slow from 0.2 million b/d in 2019 to less than 0.1 million b/d in 2020 and 2021, Trend reports citing the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
EIA estimates that non-OPEC petroleum and other liquid fuels supply increased by 2.0 million b/d in 2019.
Production growth of 1.6 million b/d in the United States accounted for more than 80 percent of the 2019 supply growth, and Brazil, Canada, Russia, and China collectively added an additional 0.6 million b/d.
EIA expects non-OPEC petroleum and other liquid fuels production will rise by 2.6 million b/d in 2020 and by 0.9 million b/d in 2021.
Forecast growth in the United States contributes 1.7 million b/d and 0.6 million b/d, respectively, in each year. Brazil provides another 0.3 million b/d in 2020 and 0.2 million b/d in 2021. Norway contributes 0.4 million b/d of growth in 2020, and then its production growth slows to less than 0.1 million b/d in 2021
EIA expects Canada’s total liquid fuels production will increase by almost 0.2 million b/d in 2020 and 2021.
Canada’s production growth will accelerate compared with 2019 as the Alberta Government’s production curtailments are reduced and more rail takeaway capacity gives producers an outlet for supplies. However, EIA still expects lower production growth in Canada than experienced during most of the past decade.
EIA does not expect any additional production from new oil sands projects to come online during the forecast, and production growth stems from expansions of existing projects. EIA expects Brazil’s total liquid fuels production will grow by more than 0.3 million b/d in 2020 and by 0.2 million b/d in 2021.
EIA currently forecasts that Russia’s production levels in 2020 and 2021 will be similar to production in 2019 because EIA assumes that the agreement between Russia and OPEC to restrain production will continue throughout the forecast period.
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