Non-OPEC oil supply forecasts revised up

Non-OPEC oil supply forecasts revised up

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan. 17

By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:

OPEC has revised up its forecasts for non-OPEC oil supply both for 2019 and 2020, Trend reports citing the cartel’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).

The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate for 2019 is revised up by 0.04 mb/d from the previous MOMR and is now estimated at 1.86 mb/d, to average 64.34 mb/d.

The upward revisions to production data from the US, Norway, Australia, Indonesia, Thailand, Argentina and Brazil are partially offset by minor downward production adjustments in the UK, Denmark, India, Qatar, and Ghana.

US liquids output y-o-y growth is revised up to average 1.66 mb/d. The US, Brazil, China, Canada, Russia, Australia and the UK are estimated to have been the key drivers of growth in 2019, while Mexico and Norway have seen the largest declines.

The non-OPEC oil supply growth forecast for 2020 is also revised up by 0.18 mb/d from last month’s assessment and is projected to grow by 2.35 mb/d to average 66.68 mb/d.

Large upward revisions in Norway, Mexico and Guyana’s oil supply forecast are partially offset by downward revisions in the supply forecast of the US, other OECD Europe, and the Sudans.

US oil supply growth forecast for the current year is revised down by 76 tb/d, to represent y-o-y growth of 1.43 mb/d. The US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Australia are expected to be the main growth drivers in 2020, while Indonesia, Thailand, Egypt and Colombia are forecast to see the largest declines. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.80 mb/d. In 2020, OPEC NGLs are forecast to grow by 0.03 mb/d y-o-y to average 4.83 mb/d.

In December, OPEC crude oil production fell by 161 tb/d m-o-m to average 29.44 mb/d, according to secondary sources.

As a result, preliminary data indicates that global oil supply decreased in December by 0.06 mb/d m-o-m to average 100.28 mb/d, and down by 0.61 mb/d y-o-y.

Global oil supply in 2019 declined by 0.10 mb/d compared to 2018. OPEC crude oil production in 2019 declined by 2.0 mb compared to a year earlier. With non-OPEC supply growth at 1.86 mb/d, if there had not been an agreement between OPEC and 10 non-OPEC countries, the market would be considerably oversupplied in 2019.


Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn

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