Non-OPEC supply forecast significantly down for 2020

Oil&Gas Materials 13 May 2020 10:50 (UTC +04:00)
Non-OPEC supply forecast significantly down for 2020

BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 13

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

The supply of non-OPEC petroleum and other liquid fuels will decline by 2.4 million b/d in 2020, Trend reports citing EIA’s May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

This is while in April STEO, EIA expected a decline of 0.2 million b/d.

The steeper decline largely reflects the newly implemented production cuts from non-OPEC participants in the OPEC+ agreement. EIA expects the largest non-OPEC production declines in 2020 to occur in Russia, the United States, and Canada.

EIA expects production of non-OPEC petroleum and other liquid fuels to increase in 2021. Production in countries that have implemented voluntary production cuts will generally rise in 2021 as global oil demand recovers.

However, EIA forecasts production to continue to decline in the United States, where production is driven by price-sensitive shale operators.

EIA expects Russia to experience the largest liquid fuels production declines in 2020 among OPEC+ producers, with forecast declines of more than 0.8 million b/d compared with 2019.

EIA expects Russia’s liquid fuels production to rise in 2021. EIA expects total production of liquid fuels in the United States to fall by 0.8 million b/d in 2020, largely as a result of reductions in drilling in price-sensitive tight oil regions. EIA expects U.S. supply to fall by another 0.6 million b/d in 2021.

EIA expects Canada’s total liquid fuels production to fall by 0.4 million b/d in 2020. This decrease is a result of 2019 government-ordered production cuts in Alberta and economic shut-ins because of the effect of low oil prices and falling demand for oil exports.

In 2021, EIA expects Canada’s production to increase and return to near 2019 levels. EIA does not expect any additional production from new upstream projects to come online during the forecast period, only expansions of existing projects.


Follow the author on Twitter:@Lyaman_Zeyn