Global jet fuel, kerosene demand to go down by 39%
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
BAKU, Azerbaijan, Aug.13
Global oil demand is expected to be 91.9 mb/d in 2020, down 8.1 mb/d y-o-y, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, Trend reports.
“In this Report, we reduce our 2020 forecast by 140 kb/d, the first downgrade in several months, reflecting the stalling of mobility as the number of Covid-19 cases remains high, and weakness in the aviation sector. China’s oil demand is recovering strongly, up 750 kb/d y-o-y in June. We have revised down our 2021 global demand estimate by 240 kb/d to 97.1 mb/d, mainly due to aviation sector weakness,” IEA said in its Oil Market Report.
“For road transport fuels, demand in the first half of 2020 was slightly stronger than anticipated, but for the second half we remain cautious and the upsurge in Covid-19 cases has seen us downgrade our estimates, mainly for gasoline.”
For diesel, there is evidence that the recovery in business and industrial activity combined with ongoing growth in e-commerce are supporting trucking activity as more goods are delivered to customers, according to the IEA.
The report says that jet fuel demand remains the major source of weakness.
“In this Report, revised data show that in April the number of aviation kilometres travelled was nearly 80 percent down on last year and in July the deficit was still 67 percent. With few signs that the picture will improve significantly soon, we have downgraded our estimate for global jet fuel and kerosene demand. In 2020, demand will be 4.8 million barrels a day (mb/d), or 39 percent, below the 2019 level, and in 2021 the year-on-year recovery will be just below 1 mb/d. These are the main components of a revision to the total 2020 oil demand picture from a decline of 7.9 mb/d seen in the last Report to 8.1 mb/d in this edition. For 2021, we have reduced the expected rebound in growth to 5.2 mb/d from 5.3 mb/d seen previously.”
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