BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov.11
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The countries showing the largest non-OPEC liquids supply declines in 2020 are expected to be Russia, the US, Canada, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Malaysia, Azerbaijan and Thailand, while increases in oil production growth are expected mainly in Norway, Brazil, China and Guyana, Trend reports with reference to OPEC Oil Market Report.
The non-OPEC liquids production forecast for 2020 was revised down by 0.06 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now estimated to contract by 2.43 mb/d, owing to downward revision in the US due to production outages in the GoM following two hurricanes in October, as well as the lower-than-expected output in Norway, the UK, and Mexico.
Following a drastic decline of 5.74 mb/d in 2Q20 q-o-q, non-OPEC supply in 3Q20 rose by 0.62 mb/d q-o-q, as shut-in wells in the US lower-48 onshore fields were reactivated. Since 18 September, drillers have added 47 oil rigs for seven consecutive weeks to reach 226 rigs in the week ended 6 November. In August, US crude oil production in the Lower-48 onshore fields rose by 57 tb/d to average 8.93 mb/d, while total crude output - including offshore - dropped by 0.4 mb/d m-o-m to average 10.58 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2020 is forecast to decline mainly in Russia, the US, Canada, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Malaysia, and Azerbaijan, and is projected to grow in Norway, Brazil, China, Guyana and Australia.
The non-OPEC liquids production forecast for 2021 was adjusted up by 0.06 mb/d is now expected to grow by 0.95 mb/d, mainly due to upward revisions in Oman and China. US liquids supply was revised up by 12 tb/d and is forecast to grow by 0.30 mb/d, as uncertainties regarding sufficient well completions and upstream spending levels prevail. The main drivers for supply growth are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil, Norway, Ecuador, Qatar, Oman and Guyana. The majority of this growth, particularly in North America, represents a recovery of production from 2020, rather than new projects.
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