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Demand for OPEC crude in 4Q21 revised down

Oil&Gas Materials 11 June 2021 11:43 (UTC +04:00)

BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 11

By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:

Demand for OPEC crude in the fourth quarter of 2021 has been revised down, Trend reports with reference to the cartel.

Demand for OPEC crude in 2021 remained unchanged from the previous month at 27.7 mb/d. This is 5.0 mb/d higher than in 2020. Demand for OPEC crude in 1Q21 and 4Q21 has been revised down by 0.4 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively, while 2Q21 demand for OPEC crude has been revised up by 0.6 mb/d from the previous month. Meanwhile 3Q21 remained unchanged from the previous monthly assessment. Compared with the same quarters in 2020, demand for OPEC crude in 1Q21 and 2Q21 is forecast to be 3.9 mb/d and 10.1 mb/d higher, respectively. An increase of 3.7 mb/d y-o-y is projected for 3Q21, and 4Q21 demand for OPEC crude y-o-y is expected to be higher by 2.2 mb/d. According to secondary sources, OPEC crude production averaged 25.1 mb/d in 1Q21, which was 0.3 mb/d lower than demand for OPEC crude.

Gal Luft, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) told Trend that as usual OPEC is keeping its options open.

"Under the current plan, it will still be withholding about 5.8 million b/d of supply from the market as at the end of July, about 60 percent of last year's unprecedented cuts. This will keep the positive trend in prices until the summer. Beyond that COVID developments will determine the market’s direction. Outbreaks and new variants are still expected which could constrain demand until the end of the year," he said.

According to available secondary sources to date, total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 25.46 mb/d in May 2021, up by 0.39 mb/d m-o-m. Crude oil output increased mainly in Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and IR Iran, while production decreased primarily in Nigeria and Angola.

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