BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 16
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Beyond 2030, deployment of new blue hydrogen projects will face increasing competition from green hydrogen (domestic and import), as this becomes more widely available at lower costs, Trend reports with reference to the European Hydrogen Backbone report.
However, there will still be a role for (by then) existing blue hydrogen projects—which have a lifespan of 25 years—to continue producing as the marginal supply option and to contribute to system integration and balancing of variable green hydrogen through firm, baseload hydrogen production, reads the report.
The report authors estimate that from 2040, green hydrogen supply potential in Europe can be sufficient to meet projected European hydrogen demand in all sectors at lower cost levels compared to grey hydrogen and other fossil alternatives plus the CO₂ price.
“By 2050, almost all of the potential 4,000 TWh of green hydrogen can be produced for less than 2.0 €/kg, of which up to 2,500 TWh can be produced below 1.5 €/kg and around 600 TWh produced at 1.0 €/kg or less.
Supplying the entire projected 2,150-2,750 TWh hydrogen demand in 2050 would require around 2,900-3,800 TWh of dedicated renewable electricity. However, producing such quantities of green hydrogen within the EU and UK is subject to public acceptance of an accelerated expansion of renewable installed capacity even beyond currently planned expansion. In addition to green hydrogen, Europe also has a large potential to produce blue hydrogen,” says the report.
“Supply is virtually unlimited as natural gas supply and CO₂¬ storage potential exceed the total foreseen hydrogen demand. Blue hydrogen production costs are expected to be 1.4-2.0 €/kg at moderate natural gas and CO₂-prices, but could rise up to 1.6-2.3 €/kg during the 2030s and 2040s when CO₂-prices further increase. Natural gas producing countries could benefit from lower natural gas costs to produce blue hydrogen at 1 €/kg. Blue hydrogen can quickly drive emission reductions and accelerate the pace of the transition, especially in the market’s rampup phase (2030), when green hydrogen supply potential from dedicated renewables alone will be insufficient to meet local and regional demand in absence of a fully interconnected European hydrogen backbone. Although EU and UK greenfield and brownfield blue hydrogen supply potential is almost unlimited, projects announced to date add up to 230 TWh by 2030 and 380 TWh by 2035 and onwards – with 70 percent of announced project volumes stemming from the UK and the Netherlands.”
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