TEHRAN, Iran, Aug.23
Trend:
Spokesman of the Iranian Oil, Gas, and Petrochemical Products Exporters Union has analyzed oil export in the current Iranian year (started March 21, 2021) in an interview with Trend.
Hamid Hosseini has indicated Iran's oil export in the last Iranian year was $18 billion, statistics show that only 2.5 percent of predicted oil export revenues were obtained which was 2.3 million barrels per day.
"There was slight optimism about possible agreement over the negotiations after US president Biden's arrival, and customers of Iran's oil became more encouraged that the US would not be strict but Iran's oil export declined in recent months," he said.
The official has predicted four scenarios about the future of Iran's oil export saying that one of them is continuing the current situation which would be bad and the other scenario is JCPOA revival.
Another scenario is that the situations worsen, considering in case Iran would not agree with the International Atomic Energy Agency Safeguards there is the possibility that the US and EU would implement more restrictions against Iran.
The fourth scenario is pursuing the JCPOA negotiations, in which Iran would halt high enrichment in return for advantages such as lifting sanctions against oil export.
The oil market has the capacity for return of Iran, predictions show that the market would increase its demand to 5 million barrels of oil per day and the oil price would also increase.
Referring to the possible cancellation of Iran's exemption from the OPEC oil production ceiling in case of lifting sanctions, Hosseini indicated that there is no specific resolution in this regard.
"We have always been exempted from OPEC production ceiling and Iran should not be expected to follow this rule. In another word, Iran has 56 million barrels of oil reserves and it is ready to sell them," he noted.
Refineries in China and India have reduced their oxygen-induced cracking distillation of oil but if a pandemic is controlled, refineries would operate with full capacity.
All refineries around the world would do the same procedure and in case their refineries reach full capacity they would need an increase in Iran oil export.