BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept.1
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Gas will take over as the largest energy source this decade; towards 2050 the share of decarbonized natural gas will increase to 13 percent, Trend reports with reference to DNV GL, a Norway-based company.
‘Natural gas currently has a smaller share of the global energy mix than oil and coal, but it will grow to become the largest energy source in 2026. Gas demand peaks in 2035 and it remains the largest energy source through to 2050, at that time representing 29 percent of global energy use. Power (34%), buildings (21%) and manufacturing (18 percent) are the biggest consumers of natural gas. After a slow start, the decarbonization of gas picks up towards the end of the forecast period, when we see rapid growth of blue hydrogen from methane reforming, and of gas with CCS in power and industry — together representing 22 EJ or 13% of natural gas use in 2050,” reads the company’s latest report.
DNV GL believes that the EU's Green Deal, with higher carbon prices, and similar policies following in other regions are important policy levers — but do not boost significant gas decarbonization until after 2035.
“Despite flat energy demand and a growing renewable share, the energy transition is nowhere near fast enough to deliver on the Paris Agreement. Even with the rapid changes in energy intensity and renewables penetration we forecast, CO2 emissions are still at half of today’s level in 2050. This is dramatically different from the 50% reduction needed by 2030 and close to net-zero in 2050 required to reach a 1.5°C future. We forecast that the 1.5°C carbon budget is exhausted in 2028 and the 2°C budget in 2051, and extrapolating the emission trends, our Outlook points towards a 2.3°C warming of the planet by end of this century, a level considered dangerous by the world’s scientific community. In order to close the gap and achieve a future where global warming is limited to safer levels, we need to further reduce energy use, electrify all sectors possible via renewable electricity, decarbonize harder-to-abate sectors through e.g. decarbonized gas, and succeed with carbon capture and storage on an industrial scale.”
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