BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept.28
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
While demand for products like naphtha, LPG and most heavy products will likely recover in most regions as soon as 2021, diesel demand is expected to be back to pre-pandemic levels only sometime in 2022, gasoline most likely in 2023 and jet kerosene only in 2024, Trend reports with reference to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook.
OPEC notes that demand for gasoline is set to peak towards the end of the current decade. In 2045, it is expected to be around 0.6 mb/d, lower than in 2026. This is a result of broad trends in the passenger car segment, where improving fuel efficiencies and the increasing penetration of AFVs, primarily EVs, more than offset the potential demand increase resulting from an expansion in the number of vehicles.
Demand for jet/kerosene also grows over the entire forecast period, but its increase during the 2020–2026 period is almost double that projected for 2027–2045. Clearly, this is due to the sharp decline in jet fuel in 2020. The same argument holds for diesel/gasoil demand, although proportions between the two periods differ. In the case of diesel/gasoil, demand is expected to peak sometime around 2035 and decline over the last ten years of the forecast period, which will offset part of the growth between 2027 and 2035.
The table below shows the ranking of oil products in terms of demand growth:
|
Oil products |
Demand growth 2020-2045 (mb/d) |
|
Jet/kero |
5.5 |
|
Gasoline and Gasoil/diesel |
3.3 each |
|
Ethane/LPG |
3.0 |
|
Naphtha |
2.2 |
|
Residual fuel |
0.2 |
|
Other products |
0.1 |
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Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn