BAKU, Azerbaijan, Oct.29
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Global oil demand is expected to peak in the latter half of this decade, Trend reports with reference to Capital Economics, the UK-based research and consulting company.
“We think that non-OECD (Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development) oil demand will continue to grow until the early 2030s, but we expect that the rate of oil consumption growth will slow in the years ahead. In addition, we doubt that the current property market downturn in China will be short lived, and instead see a structural decline in housing construction from here. What’s more, the pandemic has added to the economic headwinds facing many other emerging economies in the medium term,” said the company.
Capital Economics anticipates that there is little prospect of a shortage of oil in the medium-to-long term.
“Admittedly, the US shale sector has struggled to raise output despite rising prices over the last year or so, but it is still too early to write off the sector as a source of flexible oil supply in the future. In any case, lower-cost producers, such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, still have plentiful reserves. In fact, they will almost certainly be the last ones producing. Bringing this all together, we expect that declining demand, ample supply and lower marginal costs will progressively weigh on oil prices, such that the real price of Brent crude falls to $35 per barrel by 2050.”
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