GECF forecasts positive trend in 2021-22 gas consumption

Oil&Gas Materials 25 November 2021 12:07 (UTC +04:00)

BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov.25

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

For 2022, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) is forecasting gas consumption growth of between 1.4 percent to 1.8 percent, taking into consideration the supporting policy of the coal to gas switching in China, India and Germany as an example, Trend reports with reference to the GECF.

“The extension of the gas grid in China and India and some new players in south and southeast Asia such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Thailand that will contribute to boost gas consumption. Moreover, the entrance of the North Stream 2 pipeline will displace some coal or nuclear in the German electricity mix. Also, we considered that the majority of the COVID-19 restrictions will be removed for the whole year 2022 with a successful vaccination campaign,” reads the GECF report.

The GECF forecasts an increase in gas consumption by around 3 percent for the year 2021.

“We project cold weather during the wintertime that will contribute to around 1% in the growth of gas consumption. Besides, we considered a hotter than normal summer period which will contribute to the increase of air-conditioning use that will boost gas consumption in the power generation sector. Moreover, we have considered the easing of the lockdown measures beginning from the second half of 2021, with a successful vaccination campaign in the majority of the consuming countries,” the report says.

Meanwhile, the remaining growth is mainly attributed to higher consumption in the power and industrial sectors, according to the GECF.

“China is forecasted to drive growth, supported by a rebound in economic and industrial activity. All regions, except North America, are forecasted to record a surge in gas consumption in 2021, with the majority expected to rebound to 2019 levels or higher,” reads the report.


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