BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan.25
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Shifting away from centralized thermal power plants as the main providers of electricity makes power systems more complex, Trend reports with reference to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“Multiple services are needed to maintain secure electricity supply. In addition to supplying enough energy, these include meeting peak capacity requirements, keeping the power system stable during short-term disturbances, and having enough flexibility to ramp up and down in response to changes in supply or demand,” reads the IEA report.
The agency notes that power system adequacy assessments have traditionally relied on a reserve margin approach, which measures how much spare or ‘reserve’ capacity the system has during the tightest periods, expressed as a percentage of the peak demand.
“This approach focuses on the peak demand period(s), and requires an assessment of the availability of different technologies – including generators, grid elements, and demand response providers – at times of system stress. System operators can then target a certain margin to ensure the combined generation and grid infrastructure is sufficient. Target reserve margins vary by region,” the report says.
In a world with high variable renewables and a larger share of controllable demand, this approach hits its limits – in part because it is more complex to assess the contribution of demand response resources to adequacy, and in part because the way they interact with each other and the system cannot be fully captured in a reserve margin calculation, the IEA analysts believe.
“As a result, countries and regions are increasingly looking to more sophisticated approaches to adequacy assessment, and in particular to probabilistic Monte Carlo assessments, explored in more detail below. Some regions are already undertaking full Monte Carlo assessments, including Australia, Belgium and France, as well as an EU-wide assessment undertaken by ENTSO-E. The methodologies are still evolving and vary between regions, however these studies can indicate areas to focus on for countries that wish to move towards probabilistic assessments. In particular, these approaches are important to consider for emerging economies that are expecting to deploy large shares of renewables in the coming decades,” the report says.
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