BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 25. Russia’s influence on OPEC+ will decrease, as the countries of the OPEC+ would like to increase their oil production capacity in the long term, Bassam Fattouh, Director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies said, Trend reports via the Institute.
Talking about alternatives markets for global oil supplies the director of he Oxford Institute said that Most countries within OPEC+ have already reached its maximum capacity of crude supplies, and there is no short-term increase to be expected.
As of Russia’s relationship with OPEC+ countries, Russia could play an important role within, while OPEC+ would also like to keep this relationship, he noted.
The director noted that OPEC+ (excluding Russia) was expecting to bring 4.2 million barrels per day from August 2021 through September 2022, however, Oxford Institute expects the output of 3.3 million barrels per day from OPEC+, which is only 1 million barrels per day below its target.
Meanwhile, according to Fattouh, Iran, as one of the founding members of OPEC, will ramp up its oil production in the second half of 2022. But the forecast will have to be revised, depending on the nuclear deal outcome.
“Iran’s nuclear negotiations have taken a setback. Meanwhile, Iran has almost returned to the market with oil production and exports on rise. In our opinion, even if the nuclear deal is reached, the increase in supplies from Iran will most likely be limited,” he said.
Meanwhile, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, large disruptions in crude supplies from Russia are expected. However, there is still no clear data on the disruptions of oil supplies from Russia.
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies assumes that Russia will continue to divert exports from European countries through Asia even if Western countries do fully embargo Russian oil exports. However, higher fuel prices and many other factors will complicate the ability to redirect Russian supplies.
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