BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 9. The EU energy market will stabilize by the third week of May 2022, the experts of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies anticipate, Trend reports via the Institute.
Regarding the implications with the payment for the EU payments for Russian gas, it is expected that a crunch point will come in the second half of May, the experts said. Overall, the ruble payment issue is still an obstacle.
According to the Oxford Institute, currently, the capacity of the alternative supplies to the Northwestern Europe is pretty much booked out. In April flows into the EU, and the UK, were at the record levels, higher than in January. However, if more Russian gas disappears from the market there will be no possibilities to supply more into Northwest Europe. There will be further demand destruction.
Meanwhile, Russia’s decision to cut off supplies to Poland and Bulgaria was merely brought forward, as the contract with Polish Oil and Gas Company (PGNiG) was to expire by the end of 2022.
“Poland used to receive about 30 million cubic meters per day via Belarus and Ukraine. The immediate impact we see now is that Poland is physically importing the same volume from Germany,” the experts said.
The experts also noted that today Nord Stream and Norwegian pipe are at full capacity.
“If we were to lose supply by the Nord Stream, the Northwestern Europe wouldn’t really have any alternative supply options. The fact that everything is operating flat out is reflecting the prices as well,” they said.
As of Ukrainian transit, the experts said, that is basically a central corridor right now for Russian gas flows. If it goes down, many countries would have to review their supplies, but there is no much wiggle room.
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