BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb.14. The share of oil is expected to decrease in all types of transport by 2050 due to the switch to renewables, Trend reports with reference to bp’s 2023 energy outlook.
bp says it is about electrification in road transport and use of bio- and hydrogen-derived fuels in aviation and marine.
In Accelerated and Net Zero scenarios, electric cars and light-duty trucks rise from 20 million in 2021 to around 550-700 million in number by 2035, before reaching 2 billion by 2050.
Both scenarios predict that the majority of new car sales in mid-2030s will account for electric passenger cars backed up by growing preference, improving cost and choice competitiveness.
The New Momentum scenario suggests that the number of light duty trucks will stand at 500 million vehicles by 2035, before reaching to 1.4 billion by 2050. Around 40 percent of new car sales will account for electric passenger cars, before rising to 70 percent in 2050.
Moreover, bp expects that the share of diesel-based trucks will fall from 90 percent in the global parc in 2021 to 70-75 percent in 2035 and 5-20 percent in 2050. The predictions are based on Net Zero and Accelerated scenarios.
The company says oil will continue to play a major role in the aviation sector over the first half of the outlook, before its share drops to 60 percent by 2050 in Accelerated and 25 percent in Net Zero.
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