BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb.14. The structure of global oil supplies will change over time with the US and OPEC playing a major role in this race, Trend reports with reference to bp’s 2023 energy outlook.
bp says the share of US tight oil will be increasing over the rest of this decade, but ultimately fall due to the depletion in the most productive locations, while OPEC will attempt to increase its market share instead.
The outlook suggests that the US tight oil production will peak at 11- 16 Mb/d around the turn of this decade in all three scenarios.
The US output is set to decline through the 2030s and 40s, as its tight formations mature. US tight oil production falls to 2 Mb/d or even below in Accelerated and Net Zero by 2050, and to around 6 Mb/d in New Momentum.
The company expects a steady decline in Russian oil output, dropping from 11.5 Mb/d in 2019 to 5.5-6.5 Mb/d in 2035 in Accelerated and Net Zero and to 2.5 Mb/d or below by 2050. The New Momentum suggests that Russian production will decrease to 8.5 Mb/d in 2035 and 7 Mb/d in 2050.
Reacting to the changes in the market, OPEC will decrease its supplies over the first decade of the outlook amid the increasing output in US and other non-OPEC. This is while in the second half of the outlook, OPEC will raise its market share against the backdrop of waning US production. OPEC’s share of global oil production reaches 45-65 percent by 2050 in all three scenarios.
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