BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 10. Analysts at S&P Global Ratings agency forecasted further declining of cumulative oil production output in Azerbaijan over the medium term, but at a slightly more gradual pace, by about seven percent over 2023-2026, Trend reports.
"This is because the Azeri Central East project--the latest stage of the ACG [Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli] development--is scheduled to come onstream in 2024, and at its peak is expected to produce 100,000 bpd. Nevertheless, we expect that production ramp-up will be gradual, while elsewhere the production decline will persist, so the net trend will still be for slightly falling oil output," the agency said.
According to the agency, Azerbaijan remains a member of the OPEC+ group of countries and is therefore subject to the latest production quota for crude oil of 0.55 mbpd for 2024.
"However, its actual crude oil production (excluding natural gas liquids, which are not subject to the OPEC+ quota) so far in 2023 has averaged close to 0.52 mbpd, because of structural production constraints," added the S&P.
Azerbaijan produced 32.6 million tons of oil in 2022. Around 20.4 million tons accounted for ACG field, while Shah Deniz produced 4.4 million tons. The volume of output by Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR stood at 7.8 million tons.