BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 4. According to the latest analysis from the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, the Brent crude price forecast is projected to stand at $82.1 per barrel in 2024, showing a slight decrease from $82.6 per barrel in 2023, before further declining to $79.1 per barrel in 2025, Trend reports.
The institute maintains its Brent price forecast at $82.1 per barrel for 2024, indicating minimal change from the previous projection. It is expected to trade within the range of $75 to $85 per barrel. However, the forecast for Brent prices in the first three quarters of 2024 has been adjusted downward by -$2.7 per barrel due to anticipated market balances shifting into surplus during the second and third quarters of 2024. Nevertheless, prices are expected to tighten again in the fourth quarter, pushing prices into the mid-$80s.
Moving to 2025, the initial Brent price forecast stands at $79.1 per barrel, with prices declining to the $75-80 per barrel range after the first quarter as the supply-demand balance shifts into surplus throughout the year.
The Brent Prospect, a variant scenario, holds a lower price of -$1.1 per barrel compared to the reference in 2024 at $81 per barrel. This adjustment mainly reflects uncertainties surrounding global oil demand persisting across all quarters. In 2025, however, the Prospect is maintained at $1.4 per barrel higher than the reference, at $80.4 per barrel, with upward price pressures building from the second quarter onwards and lifting the second-half Brent outlook into the $80s.
The price band for Brent in 2024 ranges from $73.0 to $90.1 per barrel annually before widening between $64.5 and $95.0 per barrel in 2025.
These projections provide insights into the anticipated fluctuations and factors influencing Brent crude prices in the coming years, emphasizing the nuanced dynamics of supply and demand in the global oil market.
Follow the author on X: @Lyaman_Zeyn