Azerbaijan, Baku, April 29 / Trend, E. Kosolapova /
Ukraine, which is negotiating with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus on associate membership in the Customs Union, will unlikely become a full member of this organization in the near future, Kazakh political scientist, Director of NGO 'Risk Assessment Group' Dosym Satpayev believes.
"The Ukrainian government is quite cautious about the Customs Union, because we should not forget that Ukraine would not give up attempts to eventually become an EU member. Moreover, Europe has already hinted to Ukraine very clearly that it must decide with whom it wants to unite. So I think this process will be very slow and difficult," Satpayev told Trend by telephone on Monday.
In addition, according to the expert, Ukraine is very different from Kazakhstan and Belarus where there is quiet strong presidential say in foreign policy. Therefore, their decision to enter into the Customs Union was quickly approved by the parliaments of these countries.
"In Ukraine, there are many internal contradictions. Even geographically, it is divided into east and west. The latter is more Western-oriented and opposes the Customs Union. The East of Ukraine, where the mainly Russian-speaking population lives, there is support for the Customs Union", Satpayev said.
Thus, according to the analyst, the accession to the Customs Union could trigger a wave of discontent within Ukraine itself.
At the same time, the economic union with Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus would bring economic benefit to Ukraine. In that organization, goods are more oriented to the post-Soviet space than the European Economic Area. Moreover, Ukraine may be able to purchase energy resources, including oil and gas from Kazakhstan, at more comfortable prices, Satpayev beleives.
"Ukraine, like Belarus, is actively looking to acquire additional amounts of energy without the participation of Russia, even though this is hard to do this: Russia is nevertheless a transit country. Ukraine could be interested in receiving energy resources from Kazakhstan at certain comfortable prices. But how far would Russia agree if it does not strongly support this form of cooperation? There are many details that need attention here. Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, which entered the Customs Union very quickly, did not take into account these details. Now this is causing certain mutual reproaches. In particular, Kazakhstan declared that Russia constantly created obstacles for Kazakh goods, using non-tariff regulation methods," Satpayev said.
According to the expert, the Customs Union countries are also interested in Ukraine's entry into the organization, considering the economic and political potential of this country. However, Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus have different points of view about the expansion of the Customs Union.
"Earlier, Kazakhstan made statements about the necessity of approaching expansion carefully and not trying to include as many states as possible and carefully studying the experience of the European Union. Russia was a supporter of the rapid expansion of the Customs Union. This is not surprising, because for Kazakhstan, the Customs Union is mainly an economic project, for Russia, it is more of a geopolitical project," Satpayev said.
At the same time, according to him, Ukraine will unlikely join the EU anytime soon.
"The EU doesn't rate the economic potential of Ukraine as high. Moreover, the EU is unhappy with the Tymoshenko situation and the problems with the opposition in Ukraine. Therefore, the relations between the EU and Ukraine are rather cool because of these political issues," the expert said.