Baku, Azerbaijan, Feb.11
By Elena Kosolapova - Trend:
The devaluation of the national currency in Kazakhstan can lead to higher inflation in the country, according to the speaker and specialist of Asyl-Invest analytical center, Aivar Baikenov.
"The inflation can increase from 4.8 percent in 2013 to seven-eight percent," Baikenov told Trend on Feb.11.
The expert believes that simultaneously, the revenues of the state budget will increase as a result of growth in the exporters' revenues in tenge and tax payments from them.
Therefore, the prognosis for the inflation and the budget in the country will be definitely reviewed, according to Baikenov.
Baikenov believes that the main reason for the single-stage devaluation of tenge was the intention of Kazakhstan's National Bank to slow the decrease in the volume of gold and currency reserves, which declined throughout 2013 in response to the intervention of the regulator in the currency market to maintain the exchange rate of tenge.
In addition, the "currency wars" factor also have effect here, when countries around the world are pursuing a policy of weakening the exchange rate of national currencies to support exports, according to the expert.
"On top of everything, the National Bank had a task to decrease the inflation level to three or four percent. And for this, it is necessary to change the monetary and credit policy and abandon the currency stability course," the expert said.
The devaluation will undoubtedly lead to higher prices, especially for imported goods, which occupy a large share in the consumer basket of Kazakhstan citizens, according to the expert.
"The "dollarization" of Kazakhstan's economy, the transaction on purchase and sale of durable goods (real estate, vehicle) are mostly carried out in dollars, but the majority receives income in tenge. This means that the cost of goods in tenge will grow," Baikenov said.
Moreover, there is a risk that the price for services will also increase in the country, according to the expert.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan adopted a decision on Feb.11 to refuse to maintain the exchange rate of the national currency, tenge at the same level, to reduce the volume of currency interventions and to reduce the interference in the process of formation of tenge's exchange rate.
"The national bank expects that the new exchange rate will be at about 185 tenge per dollar," the statement of the National Bank said.
The official exchange rate on Feb.11 is 155.5 tenge/$1.
Translated by L.Z.
Edited by C.N.