BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 7
Trend:
A decrease in the rate of deceleration of inflation rate may lead to an excess of the target corridor by 4-6 percent as of 2021, in accordance with the National Bank of Kazakhstan's estimates, Trend reports referring to the bank.
The main factors for the revision of the inflation forecast were the growth in prices for fuels and lubricants during five months of 2021, an increase in tariffs of energy producing organizations, as well as the persistence of external inflationary pressure.
At the same time, the impact of the additional fiscal impulse associated with the clarification of the state budget will be redistributed between 2021 and 2022.
A high probability of secondary inflationary effects from short-term pro-inflationary factors has been stressed amid the inflationary expectations.
This could ultimately lead to a longer period of inflation deceleration within the target range.
The effect of the abovementioned factors of the internal environment is expected to be exhausted and the external inflationary pressure is expected to be weakened in 2022.
The inflation rates in China and the EU are not expected to reach their target levels and inflation in Russia is expected to be stabilized at four percent with a gradual decline in the world food prices.
Given the high share of the import of food and non-food items from the main trading partner countries, the gradual stabilization of inflation in these countries will help slow inflation rate in Kazakhstan and enter the target range of 4-6 percent.
The situation is being gradually improved in the real sector of the economy.
GDP growth amounted to 0.7 percent in annual terms from January through April 2021.
A recovery dynamics is being observed in trade (an increase of 5.7 percent) and transport (a slowdown in the rate of decline to 9.0 percent).
The growth rates are being accelerated in the manufacturing industry (7.7 percent), construction (12.5 percent), information and communication (11.1 percent).
The consumer activity of the population is being restored.
This has been confirmed by the acceleration of the dynamics of retail turnover from January through April 2021, which entered the growth zone (6.2 percent YoY) for the first time since March 2020.
The growth in household consumption in the first quarter of 2021 was supported by an increase in real per capita income of the population by 3.4 percent as a result of an increase in wages of employees and an increase in budget spending on pensions and scholarships.