Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 22/ Trend V. Zhavoronkova/
If the U.S-Pakistani relations remain tight, U.S.'s loss of bases in the Central Asia and the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) may become the end of the NATO's operation in Afghanistan, the U.S. expert on Central Asia Bruce Pannier said.
"Without better cooperation from Pakistan, the loss of bases in Central Asia and the NDN would be the end of the Afghan campaign," Pannier, expert of Radio Liberty, wrote Trend via e-mail.
The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member-states agreed at the summit on Tuesday that the military bases of third countries on the territories of the CSTO member-states will be placed only with the consent of all CSTO members.
The U.S. and NATO may be interested in placing the bases in Central Asian CSTO member-states within their anti-terrorist operation in Afghanistan, which must be completed in 2014. Afterwards, the allies will still need the bases to export arms from Afghanistan.
As of this moment, NATO is operating several bases in the Central Asia, such as Manas in Kyrgyzstan and Termez in Uzbekistan.
NATO also uses the NDN, which consists of a rail link, which starts in Latvia going through Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, a road route via Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan for goods initially delivered to the Manas Transit Center near Bishkek, and a Caucasus pathway through which ferries from the U.S and Europe by sea to the Turkish port of Metin, as well as to Poti in Georgia, for onward delivery across the Caspian Sea into Afghanistan.
As for the operation in Afghanistan, the CSTO agreement on foreign bases does not seem to be retroactive, Pannier believes.
"Those bases currently being used by foreign forces, can continue to be used by them," the expert said.
A good question is what happens in Kyrgyzstan in 2014 when the U.S.'s lease on Manas runs out, he added.
Pannier said, that for a year, Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev has been saying that when the lease expires, the U.S. troops will leave Kyrgyzstan.
"The CSTO agreement would back any Kyrgyz decision not to renew the lease and ask the Americans to go," he said. "Of course, if Atambayev agrees to the CSTO's deal and then changes his mind in a couple of years, he might be trapped into kicking the Americans out, even if he sees an advantage in allowing them to stay."
Besides, Russia can shut down the NDN without consulting any of the other CSTO members, expert believes.
"Moscow could simply say no more trains with NATO cargo through Russian territory," Pannier pointed out.
In theory, it is possible to bring ships through the Black Sea, load equipment onto trains through Georgia and Azerbaijan to be loaded onto ships going across the Caspian Sea to Kazakhstan or Turkmenistan where the equipment would be loaded again onto trains bound, ultimately, for Afghanistan, but this is a "logistical nightmare", he explained.
Pannier added that supplying the route solely by planes passing through airspace along the same route would be expensive.
Also Pannier said it is curious that Uzbekistan agreed with the CSTO's decision on bases.
"Uzbekistan has been cool on the idea of the CSTO rapid reaction force because it would require contributing troops to the force, which would be based outside the Uzbek territory," he said.
Expert added in theory this force could be temporarily stationed in "hot spots" in any of the member states, and it seems Uzbekistan is also unenthusiastic about the possibility of Russian, Kyrgyz, Tajik, and other troops on Uzbek territory under, presumably, Russian command.
"So did, or will, Karimov agree to ask permission from Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan if he decides he wants to allow foreign troops use an Uzbek military base? It seems unlikely," Pannier underscored.