Situation in Kyrgyzstan is unpredictable
Kazakhstan, Astana, April 17 / Trend, D. Mukhtarov /
The situation in Kyrgyzstan is unpredictable to the same extent as in neighbouring countries, Kazakh political scientist and leading expert on national and regional security in Central Asia, Yerlan Karin believes.
In an interview with Kazakh edition 'Liter', he expressed a view that despite apparent instability of the political situation in Kyrgyzstan, or, on the contrary, apparent controllability of processes in some other countries of the region - in any case, nowhere the situation secures itself from force majeure circumstances.
"This is one of the vulnerable sides of the post-Soviet political system in Central Asia. And as events show, it would seem over-consolidated regimes are not always able to survive even the consequences of natural disasters, not to mention political cataclysms," Karin said.
He believes that despite two revolutions in Kyrgyzstan, serious problems in the economy, poverty, corruption, constant rallies, political conflicts and scandals, in reality many countries of the region are not far from being like their unlucky neighbour.
"Speaking about Kyrgyzstan today it is necessary to talk not about the probability of a third revolution, or the current government's chances to retain its position. It is much more important that any worsening of the internal political situation in Kyrgyzstan has not acquired any extreme form of destabilisation, as it happened in the spring and summer of 2010.
"For example, would the next escalation of the political situation be accompanied by increased radicalisation in society, the growth of political extremism, a boom of terrorist activity and ethnic conflicts? These questions are now more important than guessing about the probability of the third revolution," the analyst believes.