DUSHANBE, Tajikistan, July 4. The World Bank (WB) predicts that the inflation rate in Tajikistan will reach 4.5 percent in 2023, Trend reports.
According to the bank, inflation is anticipated to remain within the inflation target range set by the National Bank of Tajikistan.
However, the WB predicts a gradual increase in inflation from the relatively low level experienced in 2023, with a projected rise to 6 percent in 2024 and 6.1 percent in 2025.
In 2023, the primary factor influencing inflation is anticipated to be the decrease in harvest yields in Central Asia and the potential scarcity of food supplies due to the war in Ukraine.
Moreover, the projected deceleration in the growth of the Russian economy may result in a weaker Russian ruble and reduced remittance flows. Consequently, this could intensify the upward pressure on Tajikistan’s exchange rate and contribute to increased inflation in Tajikistan, particularly for imported goods.
To maintain price stability and achieve their medium-term inflation target, it is expected that the National Bank of Tajikistan will continue implementing a tight monetary policy. This entails utilizing various policy tools effectively whenever there are indications of inflationary or exchange rate pressures.
According to the estimation of the World Bank, the inflation in Tajikistan stood at 6.6 percent in 2022.
The National Bank of Tajikistan aims to maintain the inflation rate within the range of 6 percent (±2 percentage points) for the year 2023.